In what has become one of the most contentious and unpredictable awards seasons in recent memory, Netflix’s Roma has emerged as a clear—if still vulnerable—Best Picture frontrunner. That status was cemented this morning when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced its nominations for the 91st Academy Awards, which will take place at the end of February. Roma earned ten nominations, tying Fox Searchlight release The Favourite for the most of any film. A Star Is Born and Vice tied for third place with eight nominations apiece, followed by Black Panther (seven), BlacKkKlansman (six), Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody (both with five).
While Roma was expected to be one of the most nominated Oscar contenders, the Academy’s recognition of two of its actors is the strongest indicator yet that the film will probably take home the most important award of Oscar night. Though Yalitza Aparicio had been vying for the fifth Lead Actress slot—Melissa McCarthy, Glenn Close, Lady Gaga and Olivia Colman had been considered locks for months—few analysts favored Marina de Tavira to pick up a Supporting Actress nomination for her role as the matriarch of an upper-class Mexican family. (For what it’s worth, I was one of them—de Tavira is fantastic.) Neither de Tavira nor Aparicio were nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, or the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which hosts the Golden Globes. Actors comprise the largest branch of the Academy, so their approval is an important booster for Roma’s overall chances next month. That is because all Academy members vote on Oscar winners, even though the nominees are decided on only by members who work in the fields corresponding with each category.
Not to be outdone is The Favourite, which, although backed by a strong festival launch and solid box office returns, seemingly lost momentum after it missed a Best Ensemble nomination from the Actors Guild and a nomination for director Yorgos Lanthimos from the Directors’ Guild. Because the industry guilds share members with the Academy, they are generally considered reliable predictors of Oscar nominees. Lanthimos need not have worried, however. He made the cut for the directing Oscar, and The Favourite scored nominations for almost every category in which it was a viable competitor. Supporting Actor was the exception, where even Beautiful Boy star Timothée Chalamet found himself snubbed, when last fall many considered him the frontrunner. In any case, if Roma is to be beaten, Queen Anne and her band of schemers may be the ones to do it.
Until today, Green Book and A Star Is Born were positioning themselves to upend a Roma victory. But Peter Farrelly and Bradley Cooper, who helmed Green Book and A Star Is Born, respectively, were both snubbed in the directing category. That means the statistical chances of Green Book or A Star Is Born now winning Best Picture are essentially nill. Cooper undoubtedly faced bias from the directors’ branch, which infamously snubbed actor-turned-director Ben Affleck for Argo. It is possible that Farrelly was harmed by news of comments he made in a 20-year-old Newsweek article about showing his genitals to coworkers. It is more likely, with an increasingly international directors’ branch, and recent Academy tendencies to reward arthouse directors (see Paul Thomas Anderson’s surprise Phantom Thread nomination last year), that this would have happened no matter what dirt had been drawn up on Farrelly. Green Book’s screenwriters were nominated, for instance, despite the anti-Muslim tweets one of them made in 2015. As for A Star Is Born, it shouldn’t look to Argo to feel better about its Picture chances. Despite lacking a directing nomination, Argo won nearly every relevant precursor in the run-up to the Oscars, which A Star Is Born hasn’t done.
Among the other notable snubs are Claire Foy, who had appeared to be First Man’s last above-the-line hope, with Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations for her supporting role as Neil Armstrong’s wife. Alas, the utter nosedive experienced by First Man extended to that category, in addition to Cinematography, for which it was favored, and Original Score, which it won at the Globes. Once a promising festival darling, the film has now been relegated to just four technical divisions. Damien Chazelle’s shiny track record has finally come to a halt.
Ethan Hawke was unable to land a nomination for his work in First Reformed, though that film did manage an Original Screenplay nomination, industry veteran Paul Schrader’s first. John David Washington, a lead actor contender for BlacKkKlansman, which otherwise fared extremely well, also failed to net a nomination. In less flashy categories, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, long considered the Documentary Feature frontrunner, was snubbed. That is terrifying evidence of the curse of frontrunner status. Many voters probably expected the film to be nominated, and therefore left it off their list, vouching instead for lesser-seen releases.
With notable snubs, however, come notable surprises, and many of them are welcome. Along with the aforementioned Marina de Tavira, Willem Dafoe managed a Lead Actor nod for his turn as Vincent Van Gogh in At Eternity’s Gate. He had remained in the discussion after recognition at the Globes, but was still very much an outsider, especially considering how competitive the Best Actor race has turned out to be this year. (There is still no frontrunner.) Pawel Pawlikowski, the auteur behind Polish Foreign Language entry Cold War, scored what is on its face a surprise nomination for directing, but one which has been predicted in pundit circles for the past few weeks. Still, it is a remarkable achievement, and a deserved one. Cold War also earned a nomination for its cinematography. Let’s not forget The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, which came out of nowhere for an Adapted Screenplay nomination, along with Costume Design and Original Song nods. Opposition to Netflix clearly didn’t have any impact on voters’ decisions—the streaming giant racked up a combined 15 nominations—though whether the Academy will consider the industry significance of actual wins differently remains to be seen.
The nominations reflect a kind of rebuke to the notion that popular films would win this year’s top honors. Crazy Rich Asians was shut out (a relief, in my opinion—cultural significance does not amount to Oscar-level quality), and Black Panther received only one above-the-line nomination. The Favourite, now a serious Best Picture contender, is as much of a niche indie production as Moonlight and Birdman were. While the Best Picture lineup itself is more inclusive of populist entertainment like Black Panther, the Academy is clearly hesitant to sacrifice credibility for what it sees as deferral to mainstream audiences. Nonetheless, this year’s leading nominees are among the highest grossing in Oscar history, all the more ironic if Roma ends up on top. (Netflix hasn’t released any box office receipts from Roma’s limited theatrical run.) The race is far from over, though. Roma still has a lot of history against it. In addition to being the first Netflix Best Picture nominee, it would also be the first foreign language film to ever win Best Picture. Another troubling sign, which is possibly offset by the acting nominations for de Tavira and Aparicio, is the fact that Roma was not nominated for Film Editing. Apart from Birdman—which was edited to look like it hadn’t been edited, and is therefore an exception—no film since 1980 has won Best Picture without at least being nominated for Film Editing. And before today, Roma was expected to win the award. So, the race remains almost as open as it has been since October. I, for one, am happy about it.
Fergus Campbell is a freshman in Columbia College.